Macro Winds Fuel Bitcoin's Ascent

Bitcoin surged to $110,700 on May 27 following bullish triggers from US equities and a $2.5 billion treasury plan by Trump Media. The rally coincides with loosening financial conditions — the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) has swung sharply from February's tightening phase to ultra-loose territory. This shift typically unleashes capital into risk assets, with high-beta cryptocurrencies like BTC being prime beneficiaries.

The $7 Billion Short-Squeeze Catalyst

CoinGlass data reveals a critical threshold at $115,000 where 【$7.1 billion】 in BTC short positions face liquidation. Such an event could trigger parabolic upside as forced buy-backs amplify buying pressure. Notably, this level sits just 2% above Bitcoin's current price, with derivatives markets showing exceptionally high sell-side liquidity.

Warning Lights Flash in Onchain Metrics

Two key indicators suggest the rally may be overheating:

1. Supply in Profit has hit 19.4 million BTC — matching levels seen before December's 13% correction

2. The Advanced NUSR ratio approaches 0.95, a historical resistance zone preceding consolidation periods

——"These signals don't guarantee immediate reversal, but they've consistently marked short-term tops," noted CryptoQuant analysts——

The Liquidity Paradox

While macroeconomic tailwinds persist (the NFCI's four-week improvement being the sharpest since 2023), onchain data shows investors increasingly taking profits. This creates a tension between:

• Macro-driven inflows from traditional finance

• Crypto-native capital rotating into altcoins or stablecoins

Trading the Inflection Zone

Market participants face competing scenarios:

【Bull Case】Break above $115k liquidates shorts → momentum fuels rally toward $150k

【Bear Case】Profit-taking intensifies → retest of $93k support

The coming days may prove decisive as Bitcoin tests both technical and onchain resistance levels under unusually favorable — yet potentially peaking — liquidity conditions.